Over the course of the last few months, pundits have debated a large number of polling statistics, arguing their importance towards the 2014 election cycle, where Republicans will attempt to retain the United States House of Representatives, while taking over control of the United States Senate.
During the government shutdown, daily polling was released, continuing to show the downward slide in approval rating of the Republican contingent in the House of Representatives. While these numbers remain low in the present, the proverbial “election wave” is rarely created through Congressional approval. (Note: Since 2010 Congressional approval has hovered between 11-23%) http://www.gallup.com/poll/1600/congress-public.aspx
Perhaps the most telling marker of what is ahead in 2014, may be seen in a poll released yesterday by Gallop. The poll (http://www.gallup.com/poll/165833/obama-image-strong-decisive-leader-takes-hit.aspx) shows that 47% of the American public view President Obama as “strong and decisive leader” which is down six points from September. Only 50% responded that they believe the president to be “honest and trustworthy” a five percent drop from September, but more importantly a ten percent drop from President Obama’s 2012 numbers.
While Democrats have touted that all messaging for Republican House and Senatorial candidates will be tied to the Republican led shutdown, President Obama’s current polling, combined with the growing disdain for Obamacare, are hard factors to overlook when predicting a potential wave affect for 2014. The public’s view of President Obama being a trustworthy leader was one of the overwhelming factors that led to his reelection in 2012. As these numbers continue to erode, the approval for his policy views are likely to follow, setting up 2014 to be a significant storm for President Obama’s administration to have to weather.